Working papers

 

Sorting and local wage and skill distributions in France (with Pierre-Philippe Combes, Laurent Gobillon, and Sébastien Roux)

 

Roads and Trade: Evidence from the US (with Peter Morrow and Matt Turner)

 

Productive cities: Sorting, selection, and agglomeration (with Kristian Behrens and Frédéric Robert-Nicoud)

 

The productivity advantages of large cities: Distinguishing agglomeration from firm selection (with Pierre-Philippe Combes, Laurent Gobillon, Diego Puga, and Sébastien Roux) [[Revised]]

 

Forthcoming papers

 

Urban growth and transportation (with Matt Turner)

Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming

 

The effects of land transfer taxes on real estate markets: Evidence from a natural experiment in Toronto (with Benjamin Dachis and Matt Turner)

Journal of Economic Geography, forthcoming

 

 

Sorting and local wage and skill distributions in France (with Pierre-Philippe Combes, Laurent Gobillon, and Sébastien Roux) (.pdf)

 

This paper provides descriptive evidence about the distribution of wages and skills in denser and less dense employment areas in France. We confirm that on average, workers in denser areas are more skilled. There is also strong overrepresentation of workers with particularly high and low skills in denser areas. More generally, inequality is higher within dense areas, even more for wages than for skills. These features are consistent with patterns of migration including negative selection of migrants to less dense areas and positive selection towards denser areas. Nonetheless migration, even in the long-run, is not able to account for all the skill differences between denser and less dense areas, which suggests a role for differences prior to the entry on the labour market or for stronger learning in cities. Finally, we find marked differences across age groups and some suggestions that much of the skill differences across areas can be explained by differences between occupational groups rather than within.

 

Roads and Trade: Evidence from the US (with Peter Morrow and Matt Turner)  (.pdf)

We estimate the effects of interstate highways on the level and composition of trade for us cities. Highways within cities have a large effect on the weight of city exports with an elasticity of approximately 0.5. There is no discernible effect of highways on the total value of exports. Consistent with this, we find that cities with more highways specialize in sectors producing heavy goods. We also find that changes in highways between cities cause large increases in the weight and value of trade as they reduce travel distances between cities.

 

Productive cities: Sorting, selection and agglomeration (with Kristian Behrens and Frédéric Robert-Nicoud) (.pdf)

 

Large cities produce more output per capita than small cities. This may occur because more talented individuals sort into large cities, because large cities select more productive entrepreneurs and firms, or because of agglomeration economies. We develop a model of systems of cities that combines all three elements and suggests interesting complementarities between them. The model can replicate stylised facts about sorting, agglomeration, and selection in cities. It can also generate Zipf's law for cities. Finally, it provides a useful framework within which to reinterpret existing empirical evidence.

 

 

The productivity advantages of large cities: Distinguishing agglomeration from firm selection (with Pierre-Philippe Combes, Laurent Gobillon, Diego Puga, and Sébastien Roux) (.pdf)

 

Firms are more productive on average in larger cities. Two explanations have been offered: agglomeration economies (larger cities promote interactions that increase productivity) and firm selection (larger cities toughen competition allowing only the most productive to survive). To distinguish between them, we nest a generalised version of a seminal firm selection model and a standard model of agglomeration. Stronger selection in larger cities left-truncates the productivity distribution whereas stronger agglomeration right-shifts and dilates the distribution. We assess the relative importance of agglomeration and firm selection using French establishment-level data and a new quantile approach. Spatial productivity differences in France are mostly explained by agglomeration.

 

 

The effects of land transfer taxes on real estate markets: Evidence from a natural experiment in Toronto (with Benjamin Dachis and Matt Turner) (.pdf)

 

Taxes levied on the sale or purchase of real estate are pervasive but little studied. By exploiting a natural experiment arising from Toronto’s imposition of a Land Transfer Tax (LTT) in early 2008, we estimate the impact of real estate transfer taxes on the market for single family homes. Our data show that Toronto’s 1.1% tax caused a 15% decline in the number of sales and a decline in housing prices about equal to the tax. Relative to an equivalent property tax, the associated welfare loss is substantial, about 1$ for every 8$ in tax revenue. The magnitude of this welfare loss is comparable to those associated with better known interventions in the housing market. Unlike many possible tax reforms, eliminating existing LTTs in favor of revenue equivalent property taxes appears straightforward.

 

Media coverage (partial): Globe and Mail, Dec 10, 2008, Globe and Mail, Dec 9, 2008, Toronto Star, December 10, 2008, Vancouver Sun, December 10, 2008.

 

 

Urban growth and transportation (with Matt Turner) (.pdf)

 

We estimate the effects of interstate highways on the growth of us cities between 1983 and 2003. We find that a 10% increase in a city’s initial stock of highways causes about a 1.1% increase in its employment over this 20 year period. To estimate a structural model of urban growth and transportation, we rely on an instrumental variables estimation which uses a 1947 plan of the interstate highway system, an 1898 map of railroads, and maps of the early explorations of the us as instruments for 1983 highways.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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