- Relationship between Landscape Connectivity and Tree Migration associated with Climate Change-

Climate change is a serious global-caled issue facing ecosystems. As a general idea, warming temperatures tend to force ecosystems to move poleward or upward in elevation. The greatest change in ecosystems is expected to occur at higher altitudes and at higher latitudes including boreal forests (IPCC, 2007). Boreal forests are projected to contract in the near future, being replaced by temperate forests in southern regions, and facing a lack of suitable soils in northern regions (Iverson, et al., 2002). Especially in current human-dominated landscapes, plant migration is considered significantly restricted by both fragmentation and rapid climate change (Malcolm, et al., 2002).

My research is to back-cast of migration routes of Ontario's tree species in order to evaluate the potential impacts of fragmentation on future migration. Specific objectives are to; (1) back-cast the migration routes of Ontario's tree species, (2) examine whether certain landscape corridors appear to be particular importance in permitting such migration, (3) examine the potential for strategically increasing forest cover in order to increase migration rates, and (4) identify the locations of source populations and certain migration corridors will be disproportionally important in determining the migration routes and rates.

My research will quantitatively investigate potential future migration rates in order to help design landscapes that maximize migration capabilities. By distinguishing significant population sources, we can target areas for conservation to help future tree migration. Identification of potential migration routes would also be critical interest with respect to climate-induced invasions of forest pests.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007. Climate Change 2007: Working Group Report "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability"

Iverson, L.R., Prasad, A.M. 2002. Potential redistribution of tree species habitat under five climate change scenarios in the eastern U.S. Forest Ecology and Management 155: 205-222

Malcolm, J.R., Markham, A., Neison, R.P., Garaci, M. 2002. Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change. Journal of Biogeography 29: 835-849