Expected Values of Jointly Distributed Random Variables and the Law of Large Numbers

Example 1| Example 2 | Exercise 2.7-6 | Theorem 2.7-4 |Useful Web Resources| Solutions

 

Theorem 2.7-1:

Let X and Y have joint probability mass function p(x,y). Let W=Q(X,Y). Then,

Example 1:

    Let X and Y have joint probability mass function.

    x
    y
    p(x,y) 0 1 2
    1
    0.15
    0.10
    0.25
    2
    0.35
    0.10
    0.05

     

    Let W=(X^2)Y

    E(W)= (1)^2(1)(0.10) + (2^2)(1)(0.25) +

    (1^2)(2)(0.10) + (2^2)(2)(0.05) =

    (Round to 1 decimal place)

    Let W=X(Y^2). What is E(W)?

    (Round to 1decimal place)

    Solution

Theorem 2.7-2:

    Let W=aX+bY. Then

    E(W)=aE(X)+bE(Y)

     

    Example 2:

    Refer to Example 1 from above. Fill in the probability mass functions of X and Y below.

    Please round all answers to one decimal place.

    x 0 1 2
    p(x)

     

    y 1 2
    p(y)

     

    Solution

    Free JavaScripts provided by The JavaScript Source

 

Theorem 2.7-3:

Let W= a1X1 +a2X2+ ... + anXn . Then

E(W)= a1E(X1) +a2E(X2)+ ... + anE(Xn)

Exercise 2.7-6:

The number of times a certain computer system crashes in a week is a random variable with probability mass function:

y 0 1 2 3
p(y) 0.5 0.3 0.15 0.05

 

Assume the number of crashes from week to week are independent.

A: What is E(Y) ?

(Round to 2 decimal places)

B: What is VAR(Y) ?

(Round to 2 decimal places)

C: What is the mean of the number of crashes in a year's time? Hint: Refer to pages 83-84 of the text book and use W=ΣYi, for i=1,2,..,52.

D: What is the mean of the number of crashes in a year's time?

(Round to 2 decimal places)

 

Solution

Theorem 2.7-4:

If X and Y are independent random variables, then

E(XY) = E(X)E(Y)

 

Are random variables X and Y from Example 1 independent?

Independent
Not Independent

Solution

Theorem 2.7-5:

Let W=aX+bY, where X and Y are independent random variables. Then,

Theorem 2.7-6:

Theorem 2.7-7:

Let the random variables X1,X2,...,Xn be a random sample with E(Xi)= u and VAR(Xi)= s ^2, for i=1,2,...,n. Then

Theorem 2.7-8: Weak Law of Large Numbers

The notion that Xbar gets close to u as the size of the sample increases is the essence of the Law of Large Numbers. The following is the Weak Law of Large Numbers:

 

Explore the law of large numbers by using the following applet!

 


Useful Web Resources

Jointly Distributed Random Variables

Jointly Distributed Variables -irving.vassar.edu/faculty/wl/Econ210/joint_prob.pdf

 


 

 

Solutions

 

Solution to Example 1

If W=(X^2)Y, then E(W)= (1)^2(1)(0.10) + (2^2)(1)(0.25) +(1^2)(2)(0.10) + (2^2)(2)(0.05) =0.1+1+0.2+0.4= 1.7

If W=X(Y^2) then E(W)=(1^2)(1)(0.1)+(1^2)(2)(0.25)+(2^2)(1)(0.1)+(2^2)(2)(0.05)=0.1+0.5+0.4+0.4= 1.4

Solution to Example 2

 

x 0 1 2
p(x)
0.15+0.35=0.5
0.1+0.1=0.2
0.25+0.05=0.30

 

y 1 2
p(y)
0.15+0.10+0.25=0.5
0.35+0.10+0.05=0.5

 

E(X)=0(0.5)+1(0.2)+2(0.3)=0.8

E(Y)=0(0.5)+1(0.5)=0.5

If W=6X-2Y, E(W)=E(6X-2Y)=6E(X)-2E(Y)=6(0.8)-2(0.5)=4.2-1=3.2

If W=11X+7Y+12, then E(W)=11E(X)+7E(Y)+12=11(0.8)+7(0.5)+12= 8.8 +3.5 +12 =24.3

If W=(X+7Y)/2, then E(W)=[E(X)+7E(Y)]/2= [0.8+7(0.5)] /2= 2.15

Solution to Exercise 2.7-6

A: E(Y)= 0(0.5)+1(0.3)+2(0.15)+3(0.05)=0.3+0.3+0.15=0.75

B: VAR(Y)= (0-0.75)^2(0.5) + (1-0.75)^2(0.3) + (2-0.75)^2(0.15) + (3-0.75)^2(0.05) =0.28125 + 0.01875 + 0.234375 + 0.253125 = 0.7875 = 0.79

C: Y represents the number of computer system crashes in a week. We want the TOTAL number of computer system crashes in a year. This can be expressed by the random variable W, where W=ΣYi where we take the sum of the Yi's for i=1, 2,...,52. Each Yi has the same probability distribution as the random variable Y. Since the number of crashes from week to week are independent, E(W) = ΣE(Yi) for i=1,2,...,52. Since the number of computer system crashes are independent from week to week, ΣE(Yi) = ΣE(Y)= E(Y)+E(Y)+...+E(Y). We add E(Y) 52 times. So our final aswer is

E(W) = Σ E(Yi) = Σ E(Y)= E(Y)+E(Y)+...+E(Y)= (52)(0.75)= 39 for i=1,2,...,52

D: Similarly, VAR(W)= ΣVAR(Yi) = ΣVAR(Y)= VAR(Y)+VAR(Y)+...+VAR(Y)= 52(0.79)= 41.08 for i=1,2,...,52

Solution to Theorem 2.7-4

E(XY)=(1)(1)(0.1)+(1)(2)(0.25)+(2)(1)(0.1)+(2)(2)(0.05)=0.9, and

E(X)E(Y)=(0.8)(0.5)= 0.4

So E(XY) does not equal E(X)E(Y). Therefore, X and Y are not independent.

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