Working Papers
Expectations Reconsidered: A Sectoral Comparison of Canadian-Australian Productivity, 1871-2007
Abstract: The traditional view of the Canadian economy from the late nineteenth century onward has been one of failure relative to the United States. Criticisms have focused on relative output gaps in the manufacturing sector, whilst praise has been reserved for agriculture. Growth was perceived to have been the result of spillovers and dependent on global demand shocks for wheat, lumber and dairy. In a contextual shift, this paper examines the Canadian experience from the late nineteenth century in relation to another 'settler economy', Australia. Similarities between these countries include their resource abundance, low population density and traditional reliance on agricultural staples. Creation of the first long-run, sectorally disaggregated, Purchasing Power Parity adjusted Canadian-Australian productivity series reveals that the Canadian economy was always characterised by a relatively productive industrial sector. Productivity growth in Canadian agriculture looks to have been less spectacular over the entire period. Any long run failure measured in terms of aggregate productivity performance cannot be blamed on manufacturers.
Manufacturing Success in the Nineteenth Century: An Application of Data Envelopment Analysis
Abstract: Traditional literature on the Canadian economy in the late nineteenth century has criticised the manufacturing sector for its inefficiency relative to the United States. Previous studies have failed to place Canadian manufacturing performance in a broad context. This paper explores the comparative development of manufacturing amongst 'settler economies' whilst addressing the traditional criticisms of low capital intensity and low productivity in Canada. The first task was to organise manufacturing census data for Ontario and Quebec, Victoria, New South Wales, New Zealand and the Cape Colony into universal categories that were consistent for cross-country comparisons. A novel approach was then taken by applying non-parametric frontier analysis to the reorganised data in order to analyse relative total factor productivity. Results show that from 1870 to World War One, Canadian manufacturers performed particularly well against those of other settler economies like Australia and New Zealand. Measures of total factor produc- tivity indicate that nineteenth century Canadian manufacturing was surprisingly efficient relative to Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. This efficiency was evident even prior to 1880 when Canadian manufacturing was still small scale and less capital intensive.
How did Japan catch-up on the West? A sectoral analysis of Anglo-Japanese productivity differences, 1885-2000 (Joint with Stephen Broadberry and Kyoji Fukao)
Abstract: Although Japanese economic growth after the Meiji Restoration is often characterised as a gradual process of trend acceleration, comparison with the United States suggests that catching-up only really started after 1950, due to the unusually dynamic performance of the US economy before 1950. A comparison with the United Kingdom, still the world productivity leader in 1868, reveals an earlier period of Japanese catching up between the 1890s and the 1920s, with a pause between the 1920s and the 1940s. Furthermore, this earlier process of catching up was driven by the dynamic productivity performance of Japanese manufacturing, which is also obscured by a comparison with the United States. Japan overtook the UK as a major exporter of manufactured goods not simply by catching-up in labour productivity terms, but by holding the growth of real wages below the growth of labour productivity so as to enjoy a unit labour cost advantage. Accounting for levels differences in labour productivity between Japan and the United Kingdom reveals an important role for capital in the catching-up process, casting doubt on the characterisation of Japan as following a distinctive Asian path of labour intensive industrialisation.
Work-in-Progress
Death by Distance: Measuring the Peripherality of Australian States
Abstract: Historically there has been a predisposition to view Canada & Australia as part of a homogeneous 'periphery'. This label serves to mask important differences in each country. Perth has been called 'the most isolated place on earth', an artifact of its time during the 1970s to 1990s where it briefly occupied the title of capital city of over a million people farthest removed from any other similarly sized city. There is a general perception even to the present day that Australia is peripheral to the global economy. Given the focus in the Canadian literature on proximity to the United States as a source of comparative growth it seems vital that we understand the changing effects on market potential implied by distance. This paper takes a closer look at market potential in each Australian state to determine peripherality. Market potential was then related to output and attempts are made to measure the effects of distance on long-run growth by posing several counterfactuals. The results indicate that distance played a principal role in Australia's inability to maintain an early lead that followed from several resource booms during the nineteenth-century.
The Price of Empire: Trade Diversion and Loss in the British Dominions during WWI
Abstract: Until now the costs of war have been estimated based on the counterfactual of a warless world and have included difficult approximations for factors such as human capital. This work relies on the counterfactual of a non-Dominion country, Argentina, to estimate some of the cost to the British Dominions during World War One. By avoiding the main European combatants and focusing on the British Dominions we feel the counterfactual is both historically relevant and illustrative. By entering the war the British Dominions suffered large losses of human life, diverted their government expenditure to war, altered their civilian production to military ends, blocked and diverted their trade, and transferred funds to belligerents. The goal of this paper is to quantify the trade costs for several British Dominions under the assumption that neutrality could have avoided much of this loss. This will give us a starting point to help understand how much the British Dominions paid for loyalty to the empire, and more broadly how costly trade diversion or sanctions can be for countries engaged in war.
Pedagogical Presentations/Research
In-Class Debates in ECO302/303
Abstract: For over 2400 years educators have used debate as a teaching strategy. Yet debate is rare in the modern university despite research showing its efficacy in improving engagement and learning (Kennedy, 2009). In World Economic History Prior to 1914 (ECO302H5) and World Economic History After 1914 (ECO303H5) at UTM, my course design choices start with the fact that every question in the field of economic history has undergone academic debate. In this session I discuss how I have incorporated debate and assess how it has improved engagement and critical thinking. We also examine the contention that debate helps students think critically across the curriculum and yields lifetime dividends in their approach to learning.
Using Zoom and ProctorU to Invigilate Synchronous Online Assessments…and other technological challenges in ECO220
Abstract: ECO220Y5 at UTM is offered as a full credit summer course with approximately 110 students enrolled. Last Fall/Winter term I delivered the final exam in ECO220 last using ProctorU to invilgilate a Quercus quiz. I decided instead this summer to invigilate term tests using Zoom with a team of TAs. The first three term tests were Quercus quizzes and the final two were done using Crowdmark. In this session I will discuss the pitfalls and some lessons learned in using Zoom, ProctorU and online invigilation to deliver synchronous assessments. I will also walk through some of the other assessment methods I employ in ECO220 such as Socrative quizzes, Facilitated Study Groups, Data Projects in Stata and how they have been transitioned to online learning. I will also include some student survey results indicating the student preferences for the various assessments I offered them and what challenges they faced in completing these assessments.